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*[https://manifold.markets/ Manifold website]
*[https://manifold.markets/ Manifold website]
*[https://github.com/ManifoldMarkets Manifold GitHub organization] (source code)
*[https://github.com/ManifoldMarkets Manifold GitHub organization] (source code)



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Revision as of 20:20, 27 November 2023

Manifold
Available inEnglish
Founded2021; 3 years ago (2021)
Area servedWorldwide
Founder(s)Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
URLmanifold.markets
RegistrationOptional
Current statusActive
Written inTypeScript

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'.[3] Users have flexibility to create prediction market contracts, and topics cover a broad range of spectrum, including politics, science, artificial intelligence, and horse racing.

History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[4]

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[5] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[6] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[7]

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny.[5]

Market structure

Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations, but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise,[8] allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.[5][9] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker.[10]

Use in traditional media

News sources have included Manifold in their articles, on topics including the use of nuclear weapons during the Russo-Ukrainian War,[11] the proposed superconducting material LK-99,[1][12] cryptocurrency,[13] artificial intelligence,[14] the 2024 GOP primary,[15] Sam Altman's removal from OpenAI,[16][17] and the winners of awards like the Oscars and the Nobel Prize.[5]

Thoroughbred Daily News includes markets on Manifold on some of their articles.[18]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox. 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
  2. ^ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  3. ^ "About". Manifold.
  4. ^ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  5. ^ a b c d Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-10-08.
  6. ^ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  7. ^ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  8. ^ "About". Manifold. Archived from the original on 2023-04-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  9. ^ "Manifold Markets - EA Forum". forum.effectivealtruism.org. Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  10. ^ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
  11. ^ Drljača, Gojko (2022-09-30). "Jutarnji list - Šanse za nuklearni rat u 2023. drastično su porasle: Ovakvo što nije viđeno od Kubanske krize". www.jutarnji.hr (in Croatian). Archived from the original on 2022-12-07. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  12. ^ Roose, Kevin; Newton, Casey; Land, Davis; Cohn, Rachel; Poyant, Jen; Moxley, Alyssa; Powell, Dan; Ittoop, Elisheba; Lozano, Marion (4 August 2023). "Superconductor Superconfusion, KOSA's Hidden Costs and HatGPT". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Well, right now, on Manifold Markets, so the question that people are betting on is, will the LK-99 room temp ambient pressure superconductivity preprint replicate before 2025? And right now, the market says that there is a 36 percent chance that this will happen.
  13. ^ Haig, Samuel (2023-08-31). "PayPal's Stablecoin Sees Minimal Activity Three Weeks After Launch". The Defiant. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
  14. ^ Shapira, Liron. "OpenAI Wants to Harness AI. It Should Pause Instead". The Information. Archived from the original on 2023-09-01. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
  15. ^ Kessler, Sam (2023-08-24). "After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger". Yahoo Finance. Archived from the original on 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2023-09-01.
  16. ^ Miller, Hannah; Stone, Brad; Ghaffary, Shirin; Vance, Ashlee (2023-11-18). "OpenAI Ousts Altman After Clashes Over AI Safety, Making Money". Bloomberg News. Retrieved 2023-11-18. The tech world's immediate reaction was a mix of surprise, dismay and wild speculation. Industry group chats lit up, and investors and tech leaders traded theories on social media about what caused the OpenAI board to fire its famous CEO. With a dearth of information from the company, prediction wager platform Manifold Markets started taking bets about the cause.
  17. ^ Goodman, David (2023-11-21). "Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day". Bloomberg News. Retrieved 2023-11-21.
  18. ^ Finley, Sue (2023-10-16). "TDN Launches Prediction Market". Thoroughbred Daily News. Retrieved 2023-11-18.

External links


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